How is Quad related to The Indo Pacific Region?
Indo pacific region is basically a maritime Space. It stretches from the Indian Ocean to the western pacific ocean. Indo pacific region is crucial for many countries.
Countries that come in the part of the Indo pacific are
- Australia 11. Malaysia 21. Thailand
- Bangladesh 12. The Maldives 22. Timor-Leste
- Bhutan 13. Myanmar 23. United States Of America
- Brunei 14. Nepal 24. Vietnam
- Cambodia 15. Newzealand
- Fiji 16. Papua New Guinea
- India 17. Philippines
- Indonesia 18. Singapore
- Japan 19. Srilanka
- Laos 20. Taiwan
So As You can see, there are 24 countries in the Indo-Pacific Region, and most of the countries have a dispute with China in one way or another. The USA and Australia have Trade Dispute, while India, Nepal, Japan, and Vietnam have a territorial Dispute, All with China.
But Why?
China’s design has Jepordized security in the Indo-Pacific because China has refused to accept maritime laws internationally. Dragon has repeatedly challenged the rules-based order. It has claimed a few islands and has built some artificial ones. In Short, China has become the Threat in Indo Pacific Region. The Quad comes into play to Tackle Dragons arbitrariness and its every move in Indo Pacific.
HOW WAS QUAD FORMED?
Quad was formed as Ad hoc grouping in 2004 after the Indian Ocean Tsunami. In That Horrible Tsunami, more than 200,000 people lost their lives across 14 countries. It was one of the most devastating Natural Disasters in history.
India, the USA, Japan, and Australia formed The Tsunami Core Group and deployed over 40,000 troops with dozens of Helicopters, Cargos ships, Transport Planes, and humanitarian responders in this crisis. These four countries as A group worked toward tsunami relief and reconstruction. This Group got dissolved after fulfilling its purpose. This idea of Diplomacy received praise on the world’s platform.
In 2006, the former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, proposed forming a group that would promote freedom and the rule of law. Soon then Indian prime minister visited japan, and both countries jointly made a statement to have a formal talk with the mutual thought countries in the Asia Pacific Region.
In 2007 the USA showed interest. In the same year, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe visited India. And A month later, the first Quad meeting was held. Later, in September, Australia and Japan joined USA and India in Malabar Exercise. This Group was also Called the Asian Nato. Concerned china raised its voice, protest followed, and pressure built, and the Quad crumbled.
A decade later, in 2017, the time came again when the Quad had to be rebuilt. This was when India And the USA had signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). On the other hand, India and Japan had Signed the Civil Nuclear Cooperation agreement, plus japan has been a permanent member of the Malabar exercise.
China was under the rule of Xi Jinping and becoming more and more aggressive than ever. By now, China has pissed off India, Japan, Australia, and the USA.
When Shinzo Abe returned to power in 2017, He called to form the Group Democratic, Security, Diamond, also known as the QUAD 2.0. All the four countries’ leaders met in Manila in November 2017. Quad members met thrice in the three years between 2019 and 2021.
On the March 12th, 2021 summit, Leaders of the USA, India, Japan, and Australia met virtually for the first time on the agenda of Development, Covid vaccination, cooperation in Indo Pacific, climate change, technology, and management. By jointly releasing a statement, they ensured that Quad would be working together for a better future. It was called Spirit of Quad.
Its main objective is to develop a mechanism for cooperation among members in strategic intelligence and military exercises. it was also envisaged to balance increasing Chinese autonomy in Indo Pacific Region
Quad is also crucial as in the last two decades, relations among these four countries have significantly improved. Such as, India and Australia had signed a Mutual Logistics Support Agreement. India and USA had agreements like the General Security of Military Information Agreement ( GSOMIA), Logistic Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), and communications, compatibility, and security arrangement (COMCASA). These agreements are meant to improve military interpretability between these countries.
There are two aspects of this Quadrilateral dialogue, Economic and Defence. If seen economically, this Group has also been created to assist other small Asian countries financially through a safe and proper mechanism. See, All the countries in the Quadrilateral Dialogue believe that some small countries take more loans than their capacity, which later leads them to fall into the debt trap.
That’s what happened with Sri Lanka. China gave the loan to Sri Lanka even though Sri Lanka did not have the capacity to take that much loan to develop Hambanthota Harbour. The idea of Sri Lanka was to build an economic port where enough ships would arrive to generate sufficient revenue, and with this, Sri Lanka would repay the debt to China, and the country will have an asset. And in the end, it will be a win-win situation.
But that’s not what happened. What happened is that once it was built, the traffic was way less than expected, and Not enough ships were docking. And the Hambanthota port project became a financial failure. Srilanka could not repay the debt to China. And in a result, the port was given to china on lease for 99 years. Similar cases have been happening with a few more countries.
How would India benefit from Quad?
For the first time, All four countries were present at the official summit of Quad on the 12th march of 2021. Before then, they would take part but individually make a statement.
Rising tension in Indo Pacific is said to be a new cold war. According to a Chinese Newspaper, by taking part in the coalition, India has surfaced as a negative image for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization). for India, it’s a contradictory approach to engage with Quad and Brics.
- India could benefit from the Quad as the First reason for India’s engagement in the Quad is the growing Chinese military power. The Chinese army is becoming more and more assertive. Recent examples include the Doklam standoff, Ladakh border disputes, and the bloody Galwan valley clash. In these border conflicts. Support of Japan, Australia, and the USA may strengthen the Indian position.
- The second point is the Chinese position in the Kashmir issue, which is against India and has always favored Pakistan. Whereas the USA supports India
- The third reason is cross-border terrorism. China has always supported Pakistan in this matter in UNSC.
- The fourth issue is India’s integration in the global nuclear order and the permanent member in UNSC, which is blocked by China but Supported by the USA.
- Another reason is The common Chinese practice of dumping cheap products. Therefore India wants to depend less on china as an importer and intends to diversify its economy. Quad’s other members also faced the same issue, which led to the USA-China trade war.
- India also has raised its voice against the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative in POK.
- The Rising Power of Chinese forces in the Indian Ocean threatens Indian interest, including international Rule base order and free and open Indo Pacific.
India Being a quad member, How will it affect the long-term allies?
According to some analysts, India Quad Engagement can harm Indo Russian relationship. The foreign minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, has openly said that Quad is against Russian interests and will harm Indo-Russian relations in the future.
Why is Russia concerned about this?
In the last few years, India has become fond of the USA, making Russia the long-term ally lean-to-china. There are a few reasons for Russia to be worried about. One of them is that Russia and USA relations have declined over the last few years, especially since Crimea’s annexation in 2014.
Russia’s ouster from the G8 has isolated it from the West, explaining Russia’s inclination towards China. China and Russia have become closer than ever in the last few years. One example is China and Russia’s nuclear deal of 2018.
Another reason is USA has enacted laws such as countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) which may provide restrictions for India- Russia weapon trade, which can hamper the Russian economy.
Other than that, Russia has always supported India, Russia, India china’s (RIC) trilateral formation, which eventually gave birth to BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Russia has been a strong critic of an organization such as NATO. And now that the Quad is being called ASEAN NATO, which makes Russia uncomfortable. Because of all these reasons, Russia is also trying to strengthen its relations with India’s rival Pakistan.
Iran-India relation
Quad’s impact can also be on India-Iran relations, which is significant to counter the growing relationship between Pakistan and China. Given this relation, India was developing Chabahar Airport. According to India’s Hindu Newspaper, Iran was India’s third-largest oil supplier between 2017 and 2019. But when the USA imposed sanctions on Iran, this import fell by 60 percent, which led to Iran losing billions of dollars. The deteriorating relations between USA and Iran and India’s going to the Quad can cause sourness in the relations between India and Iran.
Another example of this sourness is India’s exit from the Farzad B gas field, which India discovered, but Iran has decided to develop it. There is speculation that Quad may be the reason behind it.
Counter Argument
Among all these allegations and speculation, there must be a counterargument somewhere, and there must be a reason why India is in this tricky position in geopolitics.
such as The Security expert Sumitha Narayan Kutty and professor Rajesh basrur do not consider Quad as Asian NATO
According to them, Quad is a network of like-minded countries. Whose aim is not just to contain China or ally against Russia like cold war politics, but to be engaged in the border purpose.
Quad only wants to counter China’s hegemony and its growing military strength, ensure open and free passage in the Indo-Pacific region, and rule bus international order. Proof of this is in the joint statement of the 12th Summit of 2021, which only considers rules like rule base order, free open and exclusive Indo Pacific, covid vaccine, and critical technology.
Apart from this, the speculation of bad Indo-Russian relations seems overstatement as Russia continues to supply effective defense systems like the S-400 missile system and nuclear submarines to India.
Though it can be said Indo-Russian bilateral trade has gone down a bit in the last few years, yet India continues to import 49 percent of its arms and ammunition from Russia. And it does not seem that Russia will spoil relations with India by forgetting this beneficial deal.
Professor Harsh pant of International relations, says that Russia should not see its association with India in the context of Russia- USA rivalry. Instead, it should understand the criticality of Indian geopolitics. Due to this, India has no choice but to engage with Quad today.
India’s participation in BRICS and SCO shows its readiness to negotiate with China. But china’s dream to be a regional superpower is harmful to India, which it can’t ignore.
There is complexity in the Quad itself. But the World superpowers must accept that Quad is going to be here. How will this Group will change the world geopolitics it’s yet to see.
