Tensions have been brewing for weeks between Sudan’s two most powerful generals, who orchestrated a joint military coup just 18 months ago that toppled what was then Sudan’s civilian-controlled government.
Sudan is a country with a population of more than 46 million and rich resources. The unprecedented dispute erupted after tensions between the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, General Abdul Fattah Burhan, and the head of the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, fought for control of the country’s civil war.
Both have deployed tens of thousands of troops to the capital, Khartoum and have vowed no talks or a ceasefire despite mounting global diplomatic pressure. It was a fatal setback for a country at the crossroads of the Arab world and Africa.
Let’s take a look at how Sudan, a country with a long history of coups, got here and what the stakes are.
What happened before the battle?
Negotiations to resume an interim government transition interrupted by a coup in October 2021 have been ongoing in recent months.
Amid growing international and regional pressure, the armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a preliminary agreement with pro-democracy and civic groups in December. But the internationally-brokered agreement provides only the broad outlines, leaving the thorniest political issues unresolved.
Tensions between Burhan and Dagalo escalated amid tortuous negotiations to reach a final deal. A key controversy is how the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be integrated into the military and who will ultimately control fighters and weapons.
In March, Dagalo lashed out at Burhan, saying military leaders were unwilling to relinquish power.
How did things escalate?
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began deploying troops around the small town of Merowe, north of the capital. The town is strategic, with a large airport, a central location and a power dam on the lower Nile. The next day, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sent more troops into the capital and other parts of the country without the consent of the army leadership.
Fighting broke out at a military base south of Khartoum on Saturday morning, with each side accusing the other of instigating the violence. Since then, the army and the Rapid Support Forces have engaged each other using heavy weapons, including armored vehicles and vehicle-mounted machine guns, in densely populated areas of the capital and the adjoining city of Omdurman. The military hit Rapid Support Force (RSF) bases with airstrikes.
Dozens had been killed and hundreds wounded in the fighting as of Monday.
The conflict has spread to other parts of the country, including the strategic coastal city of Port Sudan on the Red Sea and the eastern region bordering Ethiopia and Eritrea. Fighting was also reported in the war-torn region of Darfur, where UN facilities were attacked and looted. The United Nations said three employees of the World Food Program were killed in Saturday’s clashes.
What are the prospects for a ceasefire and resumption of dialogue?
The prospect of an immediate ceasefire appears remote. Both Burhan and Dagallo have spoken, asking each other to surrender. The intensity of the fighting could also make it harder for the two generals to return to negotiations.
On the other hand, both the military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have foreign backers who have unanimously called for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Muslim religious days may also play a role. The fighting erupts during the final week of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, the three-day holiday of Eid al-Fitr marking the end of the fasting month later in the week. People’s necessities are becoming increasingly scarce, and the violence has made many people homeless.
Meanwhile, there has been a flurry of diplomatic contacts, with the UN Security Council scheduled to discuss Sudan on Monday.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said he discussed the developments in Sudan with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Saudi foreign minister said he spoke separately to Burhan and Dagalo on the phone and urged them to stop “various military escalations.”
Who are the foreign actors, and what resources are at risk?
Russia was a dominant force during the decades-long rule of Omar al-Bashir, who was overthrown in 2019.
After Bashir’s ouster, the United States and European nations began competing with Russia for influence in Sudan, which is rich in natural resources, including gold but has been mired in civil war and military coups.
Burhan and Dagalo also have close ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Sudanese troops from the military and the Rapid Support Forces have fought alongside the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen’s protracted civil war.
Egypt, another regional power, also has deep ties to the Sudanese military. The two militaries conduct regular military exercises, the most recent being this month. Egyptian troops were conducting drills at a Sudanese military base when the clashes erupted on Saturday. They were captured by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who said they would be sent back to Egypt.
The military controls much of the country’s economy, but the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) run major goldfields, the powerful group’s main source of income.
The military recently reached a consensus with Russia to fulfill the previous agreement with Russia to establish a Russian naval base in the Red Sea. In September 2022, the United States threatened Sudan that Sudan would face “consequences” if it continued.
To put it bluntly, Russia and the United States are vying for control of Sudan, which is extremely sad for the Sudanese people.
