Wagner Group
On August 1st, 2022, the small mining town of Soledar in Ukraine had apartments, buildings, and houses. Fast forward to January 10th, 2023, and it had turned to rubble.
That same afternoon, a statement on the app Telegram surfaced claiming Wagner “took control of this entire territory of Soledar.” But even though the Russian army has been fighting across Ukraine for months. This message didn’t come from them. It came from Yevgeny Prigozhin. A Russian oligarch with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
He started out as a Kremlin caterer, where he got the nickname Putin chef. But in 2014, he became the head of the Wagner Group, a covert Russian network with mining companies, political influence operations, and a brutal private military force.
Until recently, the Wagner Group was a secret operation. And claiming a public victory like this was rare. But things are starting to change, and this dangerous group’s playbook is becoming much clearer.
In 2014, Russian forces annexed Crimea and began fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. A year later, soldiers in unmarked green uniforms showed up on the ground to support Russian troops. They were called Little Green Men. But we now know this was likely the first time Wagner soldiers were deployed on the ground.
These soldiers have become Prighozin’s frontline agents for Russia’s global strategy. Candace Rondeau, a journalist who investigates the Wagner Group and Russia’s strategy for proxy warfare, states, “They serve multiple purposes for the Russian government. But chief among them is to divert attention from activities that the Russian government And the Kremlin, in particular, don’t want the world to pay attention to” “One of the Wagner Group’s main functions is to deliver weapons and military services to countries with which Russia has a military technical agreement.”
Russian law technically prohibits its citizens from fighting for money in foreign countries. But the opaque nature of the Wagner Group has allowed it to recruit Tens of thousands of soldiers, mainly from Russia. Generally speaking, these are hardened military veterans at the command level. And then, at the rank-and-file level, those who were not recruited from prisons tend to come from elite backgrounds.
In the beginning, you couldn’t really distinguish them, but today the Wagner Group brand is completely recognizable by its emblems, insignia, and online brand. These guys now are basically kind of like the McDonald’s of the Russian way of war.
And this new visibility has given us a better look At the three strategies they employ to do Russia’s dirty work around the world.
- Target Fragile Countries (Prolonged Conflict, weak government, or Corrupt)
- Spearheaded Military Incursion
- Extract Resources for Economic Benefits
1. Target Fragile Countries
The Wagner Group targets countries experiencing long conflicts or weakly governed or corrupt. Take Syria, which has been under authoritarian rule for more than 50 years, and in 2011, a civil war broke out between the Syrian government and anti-government rebel groups. To fight the rebels, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad turned to his Russian ally for help. Shortly after, Wagner mercenaries appeared in Syria to support the government forces.
Since then, all these countries have seen Wagner troops on the ground. Most of them while going through periods of instability. This has allowed the Wagner Group — and by extension — Russia to expand its reach to at least four different continents.
In particular, in Africa, where at least 18 different countries have seen Wagner forces on the ground in the past decade. In these client states where Wagner is operating, a lot of the work is teaching local militaries how to do kind of reconnaissance and counterinsurgency but often in a very rough way.
2. Spearheaded Military Incursion
The Wagner Group generally does this by spearheading brutal military incursions. Like in Mali, another prime target for Wagner.
Since 2012, Mali has been fighting a jihadist insurgency and has experienced three coups (2012,2020,2021) in just nine years. Two of the three coups brought Assimi Goïta to power, a Russian-backed president that remains in power today. Mali had military support from France — its former colonizer for nearly a decade. But in 2021, when France started to withdraw its army, it’s widely believed Mali contracted Wagner troops to help them fight against the rebels and secure power.
Mali denies the deployment of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group. But satellite imagery analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests they arrived quietly in December of 2021 and built a military base and access roads by the airport to facilitate their deployment.
Candace further States, “One of the biggest motivations for standing up is a ghost army that nobody can quite describe or define. The main purpose is to ensure that the people’s activities are not seen and cannot be traced and tracked.”
But that doesn’t always work. In April 2022, a mass grave in the Malian desert was traced back to the Wagner Group. They’ve also been linked to other violent incidents in Mali, including Moura: Where they killed about 350 men in March of 2022.
A UN report shows that since Wagner arrived in Mali, civilian deaths have increased by 324%… and thousands more have been displaced.
Once the Wagner Group arrives in a fragile country and intervenes militarily to help local dictators backed by Russia, the big question is: What’s in it for them?
Candace says, “Because they’re so integral to the military-technical agreements, they’re also part of a cycle of debt and loan incurred. When a client states of Russia want to improve its armies in exchange for those loans. Typically, through a series of shell companies, the Wagner Group will get payment in the form of oil… or Gold or uranium even.”
3. Extract Resources for Economic Benefits
Which is exactly what happened in Sudan. A country that’s been under the autocratic rule for 3 decades went through a series of coups (2019,2021) And is now ruled by Sudan’s military.
Sudan’s relationship with the Wagner Group began in 2017. At the time, Sudan’s then-president Omar al-Bashir felt his grip on power slipping and met with Putin to establish a new alliance with Russia.
Transcripts show he presented Sudan as Russia’s key to Africa. Soon after, they met Russian military vehicles spotted on the ground. And videos of Wagner troops training Sudanese soldiers surfaced on social media. In 2019, the arrangement persisted when al-Bashir was overthrown in a military coup.
Proving just how enmeshed Wagner’s troops and the Sudanese army have become. And that’s because the Wagner Group has a lot to gain in exchange for providing weapons and training. The Wagner Group operates a Gold plant in Sudan, exploiting Sudan’s natural resources.
Getting that kind of high-value commodity that can be quickly turned into cash through a money laundering enterprise is a big part of the Wagner Group playbook. But all of it is illicit and illegal. And Sudan is only one example.
The Wagner Group’s illegal mining activities span the whole continent (Africa). The Wagner Group’s playbook has reportedly made Prigozhin a billionaire. And the group is now also a legal entity with headquarters in St. Petersburg.
Putin has often denied links to Wagner group activity, but Prigozhin started speaking publicly about his role recently, like when he claimed victory in Soledar. It’s drawn new sanctions and increased scrutiny from around the world.
And that seriously challenges Putin’s regime and military influence across continents.
