Will Ukrainian Tanks Outnumber Russia Enough to Turn the Tide of the War?

Ukraine now has more tanks than Russia, a stunning reversal brought about by the latest figures. According to British media reports, Kyiv has obtained hundreds of heavy weapons from its Western allies in recent months.

Meanwhile, Russia has seen thousands of tanks destroyed or captured by Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion 16 months ago, leading an analysis of the latest loss-and-gain data to suggest that Ukraine now has more tanks than Russia.

Citing data from the tracking database, Bloomberg said that while Russia’s tank count has dropped to about 1,400, Ukraine’s has risen to 1,500, giving Kyiv an edge on the heavily armored battlefield.

Will Ukrainian tanks outnumber Russia enough to turn the tide of the war?

According to Bloomberg, the gap between the two militaries is also narrowing in other hardware, including heavy artillery and multiple rocket systems. The report cites multiple sources, including the Kiel Institute’s Ukrainian support tracker, the military blog Oryx, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Will Ukrainian Tanks Outnumber Russia Enough to Turn the Tide of the War?

According to Oryx data, since February 2022, Russia has lost 2,082 tanks, including destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured tanks. Data at the time showed that Moscow originally had 3,417 tanks, which means it now has about 1,400 tanks left.

The data shows that Ukraine originally had 987 tanks and has delivered 471 new tanks since the start of the war, including German Leopard 2 tanks, British Challenger 2 tanks and American M1 Abrams tanks. Another 286 tanks are on their way to Kyiv.

Considering the fact that the Ukrainian army captured Russian tanks, it is believed that Ukraine now has around 1,500 tanks. The initial number of tanks in Moscow was 3,400, according to the annual assessment of the Military Balance, which the IISS generally publishes.

However, Bloomberg said there was still uncertainty about these figures. Both countries, Ukraine in particular, are very serious about the true number of losses they have suffered, and one suspects that neither side knows the true figure. Also, there are no reliable data on Russian tank replenishment.

Analysts believe that Ukraine may suffer more losses in the coming weeks and months in the counteroffensive. Ukrainian troops are currently conducting multiple operations in the south and east of the country to push back Russian forces. A senior security official said the operation had been “particularly fruitful” over the past few days, with the Ukrainian army carrying out its main mission. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy admitted that things were moving more slowly than he had hoped, as Ukraine had to move through Russian minefields.

 

John Mitchell, a land warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Bloomberg that Ukraine’s tank superiority would not necessarily change the situation. “Even if the numbers were more balanced, that wouldn’t be the answer,” he told the publication. “The problem is that Ukraine now needs to retake territory, so well-prepared fortifications must be attacked, and that requires a strong advantage.”

In addition, there are fears that further delays in Western deliveries to Kyiv will result in higher losses for the Ukrainian army in the counter-offensive. Additionally, any offensive force could face higher losses, especially if an enemy like Russia is already entrenched in trenches and minefields.

Will Ukrainian tanks outnumber Russia enough to turn the tide of the war?

Epilogue: Ukraine now has a higher number of tanks, which may increase its strength on the battlefield with heavy armor to some extent. However, this does not mean that Ukraine will definitely regain lost ground. Both sides have paid a heavy price in this war, and Ukraine will need more resources and support to maintain its advantage in future wars.