Why didn't Russia invite China to attend this year's Red Square military parade?

On May 9, Russia will hold a military parade on Red Square to commemorate the 78th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. At that time, Putin will attend the meeting and deliver a speech. According to Russian media reports, the president of Kyrgyzstan will be the only foreign leader attending the military parade, which also means that China has not been invited.

From the perspective of the current Sino-Russian relationship, generally, large-scale events will invite leaders to attend to each other, especially now that the international situation is complex and changeable, and the two countries need close contact and cooperation. According to common sense, such an important event as the Red Square military parade should be the first to invite China to attend, so why is it uncharacteristic this year?

There could be a couple of reasons behind it. 

The military parade on Red Square in Russia is held twice a year, of which May 9th is to commemorate the victory of the Great Patriotic War, while November 7th is to commemorate the October Revolution. In addition to Moscow, it will be held in other cities in Russia, so this is a regular event.

The scale will be larger only when there is a full decade or a special year. In 2015, it coincided with the 70th anniversary, and China was invited. About 20 leaders of countries and regions and international organizations attended the military parade. The biggest military parade in recent years.

Why didn't Russia invite China to attend this year's Red Square military parade? There are 3 reasons

Therefore, this kind of regular military parade is like China’s National Day, and foreign heads of state are rarely invited to attend. It is normal that China was not invited this time.

At the same time, news has been coming in these two days. Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many cities in Russia have announced the cancellation of military parades. The Red Square military parade in Moscow is also rumored to cancel the aerial military parade. It can be seen that security on the day of the military parade is a problem. In such an unstable situation, inviting foreign dignitaries to attend the military parade is not suitable.

It is reasonable for Russia not to invite China because of security considerations.

The Chinese delegation just visited Russia this year, and the relevant important matters have already been discussed in person. Defense Minister Li Shangfu has just returned from Russia. The cooperation between the two countries is developing steadily in all aspects. There is no need to go again in a short time. Within half a year, There is no record of visiting the same country twice.

Why didn't Russia invite China to attend this year's Red Square military parade? There are 3 reasons

After the military parade on Red Square, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may usher in a huge turning point, with nothing less than two outcomes.

First, after the meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the Secretary-General of the United Nations has written a letter to Putin. The content must be about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is of great significance. A letter of persuasion should contain substantive measures for Putin’s reference.

If Putin chooses to believe this letter and all conditions are ripe, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may usher in substantive peace talks, but the United Nations has long lost its way under the coercion of the United States, and this possibility is relatively small.

Why didn't Russia invite China to attend this year's Red Square military parade? There are 3 reasons

Second, if Putin gave a mobilization speech for the next offensive at the military parade and encouraged the people of the whole country to fight hard, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict would usher in the biggest battle in history, and Ukraine would face the danger of extinction. Biden has announced his candidacy for the next president and will attend the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, in May. It is said that discussions will focus on how to support Ukraine. Therefore, the possibility of Russia launching a major offensive is not small.