Taliban taking control of Afghanistan will cause a huge change in the geopolitics of south Asia. They recently had a press conference where they explained how and what will be the future of Afghan. As of now, the Taliban is seeking legitimacy. Countries which has openly welcomed the Taliban in power are China, Pakistan, and Russia.
Chinese interest in Afghanistan
Indications were always there. When the Taliban representative reached china, they were treated as rulers. Last month Chinese foreign minister had a meeting with the Taliban. It seems that China has been ready for this eventuality.
Hua Chunying, the spokesperson of the Chinese foreign ministry, has said, “we hope Afghan Taliban will unite all parties, ethnic groups in Afghanistan to build a broad political structure that suits Afghanistan’s own national condition and lead a foundation for the realization of lasting peace in Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban have repeatedly expressed their hope to develop a good relationship with China and look forward to participation in the Reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.
Ever since the Taliban had taken over Kabul, Chinese state media took this matter to social media, news to discredit the USA.
China has been careful about this, and it knows what happened to governments after the Government in Afghanistan. Beijing thinks Afghanistan is way too fragile to contemplate anything right now other than being diplomatic. So now China has recognized the Taliban. What’s in it for China? China has an eye on three things Resources, Trade, Security.
Afghanistan is a country with vast minerals, including copper, coal, iron ore, lithium, uranium, and oil and gas, estimated to be worth three trillion USD. Simply put, China wants to mine those metals.
Second is, china wants the Taliban to be its partner in the million dollars project BRI( Belt and Road Initiative). for the time being, china’s silk route end at the Afghan border. Now the Taliban is back in power. They can extend the BRI into Afghanistan.
One more reason china wants a stable government of the Taliban is Xinjiang province. Afghanistan borders china’s Xinjiang province, where Beijing has put millions of Uighur Muslims in labor camps. Where the west and international human rights say, china is committing a heinous crime against the Muslims Uyghur population. However, China has always denied these allegations.
Now, if the Taliban decides, they can push in their fighter and support Uighur Muslims. They could be a headache for Beijing if they want. So a friendly Taliban won’t meddle in that affair.
Afghanistan’s new Government would need a massive investment to run the country. China can help with that. The country needs infrastructures, Reconstruction, and energy deals. Which China sees as an opportunity to make money. to do that, China would need stability in the region.
The same Taliban was born out of the mujahidin who mobilized to fight the soviet union. Things have changed. Russia said Kabul is a lot safer now than the Afghan Government. It’s a sentence of approval of President Vladimir Putin.
For years, Russia has opposed the Taliban, calling them terrorists.
Moscow supported the anti-Taliban “Northern alliance” who fought the Taliban in the Afghan civil war. But Russia grew softer towards the Taliban when ISIS came into the picture in 2015. Since then, Moscow has been exchanging information with the Taliban to fight IS. Russia is ready to recognize the Taliban if Taliban ensures security and prevents militants attacks on its central Asian allies, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. As the west pulls out, Russia sees itself as the potential intermediary. It considers its backyard.
Russia always has criticized the US intervention in Afghanistan. It doesn’t like when the west interferes in central Asia,
Russia has military bases in the region, and they have energy pipelines and several infrastructure projects. These interests will be secured with a friendly Taliban. So-called Ideology to fight terrorism goes in the wind when it comes to money and security.
No other country is excited about the Taliban’s victory tha n Imran khan led Pakistan. Afghans are leaving their homeland, and Pakistan’s prime minister said, ” Afghans have broken the shackles of slavery.”
Post 9/11, Pakistan played a double game. On the one hand, they gave shelter to Taliban leaders, and on the other hand, they also took money from Americans. Taliban is well aware of this double standard. While they celebrate the Aghans’ Taliban victory simultaneously, they are fighting the war with the Tehrik-i-Taliban on their land.
Tehrik-i-Taliban is a Pashtun Islamist radical armed group that consists of various militant groups located at the Pakistan Afghanistan border.
It is just a matter of time when the Taliban will hugely bug Pakistan. Also, Taliban has never recognized the border of Durand Line Afghanistan and Pakistan that will cause some stir in that area.
Videos are circulating of Taliban fighters gathering on the border of Pakistan. They can be seen mocking and lampooning Pakistanis that “you wait, we are coming for you next.”
Taliban’s victory is a strategic win for Pakistan. This means they can channel the terrorist in Kashmir as they did in the ’90s. A proxy war for Pakistan. The money and energy India invested over the years in Afghanistan is now completely wiped out. Strategically India had influence in Afghanistan which is lost too.
The next few days will paint a clear picture of the future of Afghanistan as the Taliban forms the Government.