Norwegian intelligence: Russia about to take control of Ukraine

Admiral Nils Andreas Stensjones, at the head of E-tjenesten, highlights Russia’s current superiority compared to the previous year.

Amid escalating tensions, the European security landscape hangs in the balance due to Russia’s persistence in Ukraine, according to Norwegian military intelligence.

Russia strengthens its war position in Ukraine, according to E-tjenesten

The recent statement by French President  Emmanuel Macron underlines European concern about a possible Russian triumph in Ukraine, considering it a direct threat to the security of the continent. Despite these warnings, the  “Focus 2024” reports from Norwegian intelligence,  E-tjenesten , indicate significant progress by Russia in the conflict.

Admiral  Nils Andreas Stensjones, heading E-tjenesten , highlights Russia’s current superiority compared to the previous year. The escalation of this advance suggests that without significant Western support for Ukraine, including a constant supply of weapons and defensive strategies, the balance could definitively tip towards Russia.

The impasse in providing US military aid to Ukraine due to disagreements in Congress over the aid fund further complicates the situation. This impasse not only slows down the supply of weapons and ammunition but also affects the maintenance of Ukrainian defensive equipment. Furthermore, the unexpected change in Ukrainian military leadership, from General  Valery Zaluzhny to General  Alexander Sirsky, introduces additional uncertainty about the future of the conflict.

Impact of the conflict on future Russian military capacity

E-tjenesten ‘s report projects that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will be crucial in determining Russia’s military strength in the years to come. Russia’s adoption of a “war economy” has strengthened its arms sector, ensuring sufficient resources for the future war effort.

Norwegian intelligence estimates that, given the current focus on war material production and a substantial military budget, Russia could regain its pre-2022 combat capability within three to five years after the conflict. This assessment finds echo in the statements of the Danish Minister of Defense,  Troels Lund Poulsen, and the Chief of the General Staff of the  Bundeswehr, General  Carsten Breuer, who warn about the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO members in the near future.

Anticipation of a major Russian assault on Ukraine in 2024 highlights logistical preparation, increased munitions production and a reorganization of forces that could give Russia a decisive advantage. The experience gained, and the development of new weapons in the Ukrainian context would serve to strengthen Russian military capacity in the future.

Russia’s strategy of alliances against Western sanctions

Russia’s perception of the conflict as a direct confrontation with the West has motivated the search for strategic alliances, especially with  China and other nations outside the Western bloc. This diplomatic and commercial reconfiguration responds directly to the sanctions imposed by the US  and  Europe, seeking to counter their impact and challenge Western supremacy.

Admiral  Andreas Stensones highlights the growing cooperation between non-democratic nations with aspirations to redefine the global balance of power. Against this backdrop, Russia plans to expand its military force to 1.5 million by 2026, revitalize the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, and form new divisions, preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the West.