The possibility of Iran soon obtaining a nuclear weapon has raised concerns around the world and has led to questions about whether Israel will take steps to neutralize this threat. However, according to experts and political analysts, it is unlikely that Israel will launch an attack any time soon.
Israel Prepared for Iran’s Nuclear Irruption
Israel has been preparing for the eventuality that Iran acquires nuclear weapons technology and may carry out an atomic breakthrough.
The country has been practicing ways to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are hidden underground. Last May, the Israeli air force conducted its first large-scale exercise to practice attacking all of Iran’s nuclear sites, including long-range aerial refueling and attacking simulated targets.
The difficulty of a short-term attack
Despite Israel’s preparation, a short-term attack is unlikely due to political calculations. According to a senior Israeli official, the country would only attack Iran if it determined that the Iranians have enriched their uranium to a level of 60%.
Currently, the International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA ) estimates that Iran has obtained 87.5 kilograms of enriched uranium, which would allow it to build a single nuclear weapon if it reached 90% enrichment.
Skepticism over an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities
The left-wing Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz expresses skepticism that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would order an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
According to the newspaper, Israel’s air force has never carried out an air campaign as complex as the one that would be necessary to neutralize Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In addition, the necessary attacks would require coordination with the United States, whose relations with Israel have deteriorated since Netanyahu returned to power in December.
The importance of coordination with the United States
The general consent of public opinion and trust between the political and military leadership is necessary to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities successfully.
In addition, social cohesion and firmness are necessary if a war with Hezbollah ensues, as is a full concentration by the air force and Military Intelligence. Given the current political climate, the Biden administration is unlikely to allow the US Air Force to assist Israel in an attack on Iran.
In short, while Israel is prepared for the eventuality of a nuclear breakout from Iran, a short-term attack is difficult, if not impossible, due to political calculations and the need for coordination with the United States. Therefore, the situation remains uncertain, and the world is watching how this conflict will develop.