In recent times, the prospect of a potential armed conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait has seized the attention of many. With various sources making claims about the likelihood of the United States prevailing in such a scenario, it becomes crucial to scrutinize these assertions carefully. Understanding both nations’ military capabilities and strategic postures is vital before drawing any definitive conclusions. This article aims to delve into the intricacies of this issue and analyze the factors that could influence the outcome of a Taiwan Strait war.

The American Narrative: A 92% Probability of Victory?

The American government, think tanks and media outlets have been enthusiastic about projecting the United States’ military prowess and its potential to intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict. Claims suggest a 92% probability of the United States winning in such a war. However, it is of utmost importance to take a closer look at the basis of these assertions and assess their accuracy.

Dissecting the American Think Tanks’ Deduction

The deduction made by American think tanks, including the widely reported 92% probability of victory, warrants scrutiny. While some media outlets have propagated this claim, military experts and observers well-versed in the dynamics of the Sino-U.S. confrontation have reservations about its validity.

The Reality of Military Advantage

Contrary to the American media’s portrayal, the actual situation does not necessarily align with their claims of overwhelming superiority. Historical incidents, such as the 2016 South China Sea arbitration case and previous conflicts, have demonstrated that the United States does not always possess an advantage over China.

Can the United States win in a Taiwan Strait War against China?

Sima Nan’s Perspective

Renowned military analyst Sima Nan argues that the United States’ confidence in military matters stems from past victories in foreign wars and the Cold War. However, China presents a unique challenge that the U.S. has not encountered before. The failure in the Korean and Vietnam Wars has left the U.S. without a convincing track record against China.

Analyzing Military Capabilities

To assess the feasibility of a U.S. victory in the Taiwan Strait, it is crucial to analyze the respective military capabilities of both nations. China’s advanced anti-access systems and long-range strike methods have significantly enhanced its ability to defend its territorial interests.

U.S. Military’s Challenges

The U.S. military’s traditional means of force projection might not be as effective in the Taiwan Strait conflict. Strategic bombers with long-range missiles have been suggested as a potential solution, but experts point out that such a strategy might prove futile against China’s advanced military capabilities.

Contrasting Views: RAND Corporation’s Simulation

The RAND Corporation, another prominent think tank, simulated a Sino-U.S. war in the West Pacific, yielding results contrary to the 92% victory claim. According to the RAND think tank, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army possesses a decisive advantage in its home region.

Potential Outcomes of the Taiwan Strait Conflict

Analyzing the potential outcomes of a Taiwan Strait conflict, it becomes evident that the situation is complex and precarious. The scenarios range from large-scale armed conflicts to possible worldwide nuclear war, none of which bodes well for the United States.

Real Factors Influencing the Status Quo

It is important to recognize that the presence of the U.S. military does not solely dictate the status quo between China and Taiwan. Factors such as international influence and geopolitical dynamics play a significant role in maintaining current affairs.


In conclusion, the claim of a 92% probability of the United States winning in a Taiwan Strait war demands careful examination. While the U.S. government and media may tout their military capabilities, the reality of the situation suggests a different narrative.

China’s advanced anti-access systems and long-range strike methods present formidable challenges for the U.S. military. Moreover, simulations conducted by reputable think tanks like the RAND Corporation project a different outcome.